Implied Probability Formulas:
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Definition: This calculator converts moneyline odds (American odds) into implied probability percentages.
Purpose: It helps bettors and analysts understand the win probability implied by sports betting odds.
The calculator uses different formulas for positive and negative moneylines:
Where:
Explanation: The formulas convert these odds into percentage probabilities that sum to over 100% (the bookmaker's margin).
Details: Understanding implied probability helps bettors identify value bets where their estimated probability differs from the bookmaker's implied probability.
Tips: Enter the moneyline odds (with + or - sign). The calculator will automatically determine which formula to use.
Q1: What's the difference between + and - moneyline odds?
A: Negative odds (-) indicate favorites (bet more to win less), positive odds (+) indicate underdogs (bet less to win more).
Q2: Why does the implied probability matter?
A: It shows the break-even percentage needed for a bet to be profitable long-term.
Q3: What does 60% implied probability mean?
A: The sportsbook is pricing the outcome as having a 60% chance of occurring.
Q4: How do I convert probability back to moneyline?
A: For probabilities ≥50%: Moneyline = - (Probability / (1 - Probability)) × 100
For probabilities <50%: Moneyline = ((1 - Probability) / Probability) × 100
Q5: Why do probabilities sum to more than 100%?
A: The excess (vigorish) represents the bookmaker's margin or profit.